Bitcoin (BTC) is starting a new week in a dangerous place as it sets the mood for global macro instability. Bitcoin’s next direction is not yet clear, although it closed a weekly close just a few hundred dollars above $19,000. So, what will determine its direction? Here are 10 developments that are likely to affect the prices of BTC and altcoins this week
Bitcoin price avoids multi-year low weekly close
Despite the bearish mood, Bitcoin’s weekly close could have been worse. Just above $19,000, the largest cryptocurrency managed to add $250 to last week’s closing price. This previous close was still the lowest since November 2020 on weekly timeframes. That’s why traders continue to fear that the worst is yet to come.
Experts accepted a summary concluding that BTC/USD is in the “low volatility” zone and this will require a breakout sooner or later. All that was left was to decide on the direction. Credible Crypto replied, “The next big move is here.” “The weekly chart shows a huge bullish volume + weekly bullish divergence on one of the most reliable timeframes since the start of the third quarter,” said analyst named Doctor Profit. He added that it was just a matter of time to break. However, Crypto Capo pointed to the $14,000 to $16,000 range as a longer-term target.
Credit Suisse crisis affects markets
Beyond cryptocurrency, the attention is on major global banks, particularly Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank. As we reported as Kriptokoin.com, the concerns about liquidity resulted in the CEO’s statements. Executives reportedly spent the weekend trying to calm major investors. Bank failures are a nuisance for underwater hunters – this is what led to the creation of Bitcoin in the beginning.
For Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin startup JAN3, the current environment could give Bitcoin a chance to shine. However, with the instability and growing geopolitical tensions already prevalent in the global economy, Bitcoin markets are already being affected. The US dollar index (DXY) is still only three points away from its highest level in the last two decades.
Miner revenues approaching all-time low
As Bitcoin price suppression continues, it’s not surprising to see miners struggling to maintain profitability. At one point in September, monthly sales from miners exceeded 8,500 BTC, which then fell. But the data show that for many, the situation is precarious. Estimates from monitoring resource MiningPoolStats put the current Bitcoin network hash rate at 261 exahash per second (EH/s). This is just slightly below the all-time high of 298 EH/s seen in September.
Competition among miners is also healthy, as evidenced by the difficulty adjustments. While last week saw its first drop since July, difficulty will rise an estimated 3.7% in seven days, reaching all-time highs. However, it may be too early to breathe a sigh of relief for economist, trader and entrepreneur Alex Krueger.
Grayscale’s BTC fund ‘discount’ hits all-time low
The largest institutional investment vehicle that reflects an institutional exit from BTC investment has never been cheaper. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which traded well above the Bitcoin spot price in good times, is now available at its biggest discount ever. According to data from Coinglass, on September 30, GBTC premium reached -36.38%. This means that the BTC price is only $11,330 for the fund.
Bitcoin (BTC) “maximum pain” scenario
For analyst and statistician Willy Woo, creator of the Woobull data source, the next bottom could have a close relationship with hodler capitulation. Earlier in Bitcoin’s history, lows were paralleled by at least 60 percent of the BTC supply being lost. So far, the market has almost replicated this trend, but not quite. This led Woo to conclude that “maximum pain” might still be possible. According to Glassnode, as of October 2, 9.52 million BTC was held at a loss. Last month, the metric hit its highest level since March 2020.
Highlights of the week
In addition to the above, it is necessary to pay attention to the important data that will be experienced during the week. Among them, the most important ones are today’s TUIK Inflation Data and FED closed session. While the FED session continues tomorrow, the ECB President’s speech will be important for the markets. On Friday, US non-farm payroll data and unemployment levels will emerge.